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Egypt – Stable Domestic Economic
Environment
bps
Period of stability post election of current President had local economy return to normality though followed by recent partial
selloff on the back of geopolitical tensions
One notch upgrade across rating agencies since 2013 with all stable outlooks currently
Central Bank of Egypt has a new governor that is a seasoned banker with closer connections to the business community, aware
of their main concerns as external financing might weigh down on FX reserves
The Gulf countries have provided Egypt with ongoing grants, soft loans and petroleum products since 2013
Shortage of gas and fiscal pressure prompting serious considerations of gas price reforms at EGPC/Government
EGPC payments of receivables acceleration; EGPC has paid down $600m by August 2015
4.7%
5.1%
1.8%
2.2% 2.1% 2.2%
3.5% 3.6%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F
Source: Bloomberg as at November 2015.
Recent Weakening of Credit Spreads and Yield Curve
Real GDP Growth Outlook
25
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15 Nov-15
Egypt 5Y CDS
Egypt 10Y CDS
Egypt 30Y Bond
Egypt 10Y Bond